Time for Peace in South Asia?
The bus service between India and Pakistan has started again. It should not have been disrupted in the first place, of course, but let us be thankful for small mercies. This is a small beginning but it is all we can hope for after the surreal days of December 2001 when the two nuclear rivals came to the brink of war.
The pivotal issue, as always, is Kashmir. An article by Ilyas Khan in The Herald (July 2003) tells us that ‘under severe international pressure, the Pakistani military establishment has called off its support to Kashmiri militants’. The article ominously adds: ‘for the time being’ to this message. However, for the present, conditions for talks about peace---if not peace itself---have been created. And if ‘international pressure’ has done it, then we need not be reluctant to admit that it has, at least this once, done something good.
The problem is that in the most populated province of Pakistan, Punjab, Kashmir is considered almost the ‘honour’ of Pakistan. The N.W.F.P and urban Sindh also feels this way. In India’s Hindi belt Kashmir is, once again, a central issue---one which defines the secular identity of the Indian state. This is the official line in both countries and this probably is the actual thinking of the military and the bureaucracy. However, as I discovered during a survey, this thinking need not lead to war as most of the educated people---and especially young people---even in the cities of Punjab, N.W.F.F and urban Sindh do not favour conflict and actually aspire for peace.
This survey was meant to find out how the thinking, or world view, of students differs according to their socio-economic class and exposure to madrassa teaching. I had carried out a similar survey of 1450 students from all kinds of streams of school education in 1999-2000 and this was published in my book language, Ideology and Power (Oxford University Press, 2002). However, I thought the events of Nine Eleven and, more importantly, General Musharraf’s promise that Pakistan would not be used to send armed fighters across the line of control must have changed public opinion in this country. Moreover, it was obvious that people in Pakistan did not want a war. Indeed, it was the Indian public which was in a jingoistic mood ever since Kargil. To gauge this change in public perception I again added questions on Kashmir to my new survey which was carried out in the December of 2002 and up to the middle of 2003 on 1283 madrassa, English-medium, Urdu-medium, college and university students and faculty. The survey had to be non-random (convenience) and it was limited to the cities of Punjab as well as Peshawar and Karachi. Anyway the three relevant questions are as follows:-
Q-1 Take Kashmir away from India by an open war?
Q-2 Take Kashmir away from India by supporting Jihadi groups to fight with the Indian army?
Q-3 Support Kashmir case through peaceful means only (i.e. no open war or sending Jahadi groups across the line of control)
The only options were (a) Yes (b) No (c) Don’t know. Thus, if one said ‘yes’ to the third alternative (peaceful measures to resolve the Kashmir dispute), it meant that the response to the first two, militant, alternatives would be ‘no’ or ‘don’t know’. However, people are not as logical as that. They very often ticked ‘yes’ for the third alternative while also ticking the first or the second one. This shows, if nothing else, the desire for peace even if people also feel that present circumstances call for more militant measures. Be that as it may, most people are for peace.
I have published figures of this survey for schools in Dawn 23 February 2003 earlier but they are being repeated here so as to make comparison with other institutions easier. The figures for colleges, universities and cadet colleges are new as they were obtained after February this year. The table below gives abbreviated questions and all figures for responses are percentages.
Box - 1
|
||||||||
|
Abbreviated
Questions |
Madrassa (N=142) |
Urdu-medium (N=230) |
English-medium (N=116) |
Cadet
Colleges (N=130) |
Govt
Colleges (N=326) |
Public
Universities (N=206) |
Private
Universities (N=133) |
|
|
1. Open War |
Yes |
59.86 |
39.56 |
25.86 |
36.92 |
46.01 |
34.95 |
35.34 |
|
No |
31.69 |
53.04 |
64.66 |
60.00 |
48.47 |
55.34 |
57.89 |
|
|
Don’t
know |
8.45 |
7.39 |
9.48 |
3.08 |
5.52 |
9.71 |
6.77 |
|
It is clear that only madrassa students favour an open war. All others are against it. However, only elitist English-medium school students oppose it in high numbers.
Let us now look at the support for Question No. 2 among the students.
|
Box – 2 |
||||||||
|
Abbreviated
Questions |
Madrassa (N=142) |
Urdu-medium (N=230) |
English-medium (N=116) |
Cadet
Colleges (N=130) |
Govt
Colleges (N=326) |
Public
Universities (N=206) |
Private
Universities (N=133) |
|
|
2. Jihadi
groups |
Yes |
52.82 |
33.04 |
22.41 |
53.08 |
50.00 |
46.12 |
34.59 |
|
No |
32.39 |
45.22 |
60.34 |
40.00 |
38.04 |
43.20 |
57.14 |
|
|
Don’t
know |
14.79 |
21.74 |
17.24 |
6.92 |
11.96 |
1068 |
8.27 |
|
Once again, low-intensity warfare in Kashmir is also supported most by madrassa students. However, in this case the students of cadet colleges and the government colleges are also quite supportive.
Let us now look at the desire for peace. To remind the reader, the question was not answered correctly by the respondents. Some had ticked ‘yes’ even when they had also ticked ‘yes’ for the militant options given in the first two questions. However, it is important to note this response to understand that people do want peace though not at all costs. The responses are as follows:
|
Box – 3 |
||||||||
|
Abbreviated
Questions |
Madrassa (N=142) |
Urdu-medium (N=230) |
English-medium (N=116) |
Cadet
Colleges (N=130) |
Govt
Colleges (N=326) |
Public
Universities (N=206) |
Private
Universities (N=133) |
|
|
3. Peaceful
means |
Yes |
33.80 |
75.65 |
72.41 |
56.15 |
60.43 |
58.25 |
57.14 |
|
No |
54.93 |
18.26 |
18.97 |
36.92 |
22.70 |
28.64 |
35.34 |
|
|
Don’t
know |
11.27 |
6.09 |
8.62 |
6.92 |
16.87 |
13.11 |
7.52 |
|
This time the evidence is overwhelming. All types of students, except madrassa ones, aspire for peace.
This means that despite decades of the educational policy’s focus on Kashmir, students do realize that this is an issue which needs a peaceful solution. While disturbingly large percentages of ordinary students---representative of the educated members of the middle classes---are in favour of some support to militant polices, it is only the madrassa students, inspired by their crusading fervour, who seem to reject peaceful policies in very large numbers.
Does this mean that peace is not possible at all? I think it is. It seems to me that people are less supportive of militant policies than they were before Nine Eleven. I believe that General Musharraf’s policies on Kashmir are not opposed because people realize that other policies could precipitate an unwanted war. If the media and the textbooks take it up and preach peace instead of militancy, public opinion can change to the extent that people will allow their leaders to be flexible on Kashmir when they negotiate with each other. However, it is important that it should not appear that the United States or European powers are forcing Pakistan’s hand.
This is even more true for India thus it is for Pakistan. If the Indian opinion moulders start moving out of the clutches of the Hindu extremists and the rigid official stance, some solution based on justice and fair play to the people of Kashmir could be found. The idea is that, except the extremists, nobody wants a war and that is what we should take as a confidence building measure if we want to start where we left off at Agra.