EARTHQUAKE

Dr. Tariq Rahman

They believed that the earth rests upon the horns of a bull and when the bull shakes them there are earthquakes. They now believe that the earth has tectonic plates and when these move energy in the form of seismic waves is released and sets the surface of the earth in motion . This is an earthquake. In the days of the bull human beings could do nothing; in the days of the seismic waves they can make buildings which do not collapse even when the earthquake is strong (even 7.6 on the richter scale). But the morning of 8 October and the time of 8.55 a.m will remain etched on the memory of everybody in this country, or at least the northern part of it, for ever. That was the day when we saw the ground, which we experienced as being firm, shake like a leaf . I recall bringing my daughter down from her room on the first floor. We only had to walk down a flight of stairs but the stairs were shaking and I had to clutch at the banisters to steady myself. This was the day when the Margalla Towers went down with a roar such as nobody could have imagined. It was as if the monsters locked up in the bowels of earth were rising up in fury to be let out. And down came the huge building -- a building which was a coveted living area earlie-- like a house of cards. As news poured in telephones rang frantically but I found no reply from Muzaffarabad. That is where the earth monsters had really gone berserk in their fury. In scientific language, the epicenter of the quake was 10 kilometres deep and near Muzaffarabad being in Mansehra and about a 100 kms from Islamababad. At night the clouds loomed up from nowhere and the people on the streets of Muzaffarabad had to avoid the streets but where could they go? Shock waves had been felt all day and the buildings, if they were still standing, looked like death traps. Meanwhile news came from all over the country of roofs collapsing and school children injured and traumatized even as far as Lahore. It was like a country devastated by an attack of the Aliens.

This earthquake brings out a few facts about our world view, civic amenities and preparedness for mishaps. It emerges that we still live in the age of the bull and have not graduated to the scientific view that there are such things as movements of the tectonic plates and something can be done about the seismic waves these produce. Millions of years back the plate of South Asia cam and hit the Eurasian plate. The shock was so immense that it created the huge Himalayan mountains. This was not the end of the story: the South Asian plate still moves into the Eurasian plate about 1.6 inches every year. This causes the quakes but they usually originate from the Hindu Kush mountains and not from the Mansehra area. This quake originated from the mansehra area and so Muzaffarabad, Abbottabad and even Islamabad were so badly hit. Pakistan is divided into four zones according to the kind of ssismic disturbances they can expect. The most vulnerable is Balochistan around Quetta. Northern Punjab and the NWFP is also affected. Karachi to is vulnerable. In fact in 1945 there was an earthquake which sent 12 metres of waves along the Makran coast. It too was said to be of nearly 7.9 on the scale constructed by Charles Richter.

So, with all this information, how do we behave? We still construct buildings as if the chance of the bull shaking his horns was something we can do nothing about. In Japan and Caifornia they construct buildings designed not to collapse in most earthquakes. This they do by making the base separate from the main building by putting in movable and flexible material. They also use steel and wood and the walls are sometimes supported by steel supports from outside. When I was at Berkeley I noticed that the buildings of the university were all made of steel girders. Even the tall Sather Tower, from which one can see all Berkeley, parts of Oakland and even san Francisco with the Golden Gate as its main landmark lying in a breathtaking panorama below, is made of steel girders. Peoples’ houses were made of wood but there was an authority to check whether the standard of the wood was safe or not. Even this does not guarantee complete safety (as the Kobe earthquake suggests) so there is no such thing as a completely earthquake-proof building. However, there is reasonable guarantee that the building would withstand most earthquakes. Of course there are other dangers, such as that of fire, in very strong earthquakes and that is why the city authorities have to be prepared for all types of contingencies.

In Islamabad there was little awareness, at least in building practices, that this was a seismic zone. One hears that the Margalla Towers was constructed in the violation of building rules. It was supposed to be of ten stories but it had twelve. There are other news reports saying that the building material was substandard. I wonder if the CDA is not responsible for checking just these sort of things. One does not understand what good it is for those who have died or been paralyzed or maimed for life to know that the completion certificate had never been issued. This is mere bureaucratic jargon. What would have mattered is if the flats had never been allowed to be sold and nobody had occupied them. The people buying the flats or hiring them do not know if the CDA has issued some certificate or not. Certificates are nothing if they are not enforced; if they do not prevent what they are meant to prevent. One also hears that many other tall buildings have developed cracks. If lives are to be saved then all of them should be reconstructed no matter what it costs. And for the future our engineers should learn from the kind of things they do in Japan and California. We should either have safe highrise buildings or none at all. And this goes for Lahore (remember the Kangra quake of 1905) and Karachi too which can face earthquakes. Indeed, Karachi which has buildings built on sand and with the most defective material possible will be almost wiped out of existence even worse than Ahmedabad in the Indian Gujrat was. Of course Quetta and Peshawar might be safe without any high rise buildings at all.

Then there is the matter of how to deal with emergencies. There are such things as the National Crisis Management Cell of the Ministry of the Interior. However, the UNDP reviewed the disaster management policies in January 2005 and found them defective. This is obvious everywhere. No building , least of all educational institutions, have any standing orders on how to react to emergencies. No drills are carried out and nobody knows how to behave in an emergency. Some institutions did not allow the students to leave rooms to go outside and some simply sent them home when their parents could not collect them. This kind of behaviour has caused immense damage when the Ojhri Camp ammunition blew off in April 1988. It has caused even more damage this time. This is taught in some countries and it lies well within the realm of the possible. It is time we gave up ad hocism and send in the army in every emergency. One is grateful to the army for help as one is to the Edhi Foundation and private philanthropists and also foreign countries which have sent help. But there should be strong and reliable civilian institutions which should swing into action with ambulances, fire fighting engines and tractors as well as food and other necessities as soon as something like this happens. In their absence the people develop further mistrust in the civilian government which is not good if the desire for democracy is to be cherished and strengthened. Democracy must appear to work; civilian institutions must appear efficient. And it will not even appear to work if the civilian administration does not cater for all needs of the citizens.

So, while nothing can be done to prevent the tectonic plates from moving much can be done to prevent this movement from causing the avoidable suffering which we have witnessed on the black October day—8 October 2005.

Dr. TARIQ RAHMAN

The author is a linguistic historian