CONSEQUENCES of the ELECTIONS: 2002

Dr TARIQ RAHMAN

. The election results are out and it is time we analyzed their possible consequences. First, as predicted by many analysts, we will probably have a hung parliament. Whether the prime minister is from the PPPP or from the PML-Q, he will be very weak. If he is not subservient to the President he can be removed from his office with minimum fuss. The days of the revolving prime ministers, removed at will be governors general, may again come back. Again no government will complete its tenure bringing civilian rule, and indeed democracy itself, in disrepute. This is something which many people had, of course, predicted. As it happens this scenario is very much in the interest of the establishment. According to Both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif this is because the elections have been deliberately rigged but so far nobody has given proof of this.

Even more to the point is the fact that the religious parties have come to dominate the provincial parties of both the N.W.F.P. and Balochistan. They will also have a significant voice in the National assembly and an even more dominant role in the Senate. This is not surprising because religion has been a significant factor in the politics of these conservative provinces since the 1970s (remember JUI’s hold there). What is new is that the ethnic parties (such as the ANP) have been almost wiped out and the hold of the religious right is now more pronounced than it ever was. There are reasons for this.

First, the Frontier and Balochistan have been undergoing Talibanization (turn towards religious fundamentalism) since the beginning of the Afghan War. The term “Jihad” became a household word in that era and the youth went in for movements like that of Sufi Mohammad and the Taliban since 1993. At times the symbols of Western decadence and modernity, such as videos, TVs and dish antennas, were destroyed. Partly this was a consequence of a new wave of religious fervour but, in my opinion, the fervour also had economic, social and cultural causes. The area remained poor and bureaucratic procedures were so tiresome than people were attracted to the Taliban’s promise of delivering instant and ready-made justice. Another point is that the Taliban seemed much more independent than the Pakistani ruling elite to their rustic admirers. After all, the Pakistani elite is alienated from the common people. Its institutions function in inscrutable ways which are baffling and annoying for the people. The language of these institutions is foreign and intimidating for the people. Indeed, the whole project of modernity seems to work to degrade the common people and marginalize them too. The Taliban, on the other hand, dressed like the common people of the Frontier, spoke their language (Pashto) and used cultural constructs which they were familiar with. Thus the Taliban did not seem to be dependent on the West; they appeared not to be lackeys or stooges. They appeared to follow their own way of life independent of the norms which the West had imposed on all those in power everywhere except perhaps in Iran. This apparent independence was a great psychological booster and it made many among the Frontier and the Balochistan Pashtuns admirers of theTaliban.

Add to this the fact that the Taliban were generally Pashto-speakers as are the people of the rural Frontier and those parts of Balochistan which share the border with Afghanistan. Moreover they studied in the religious seminaries of these two provinces and there was much interaction between them and the clergy in Pakistan when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan. The Taliban were seen as part of the Pashtun extended clan and the Pakistani Pashtuns were proud of their sway in Afghanistan.

In the midst of this came the American reaction to the event of Nine Eleven. As American bombers started bombing the Taliban the religious and Pakhtun opinion started opposing them. Here the traditional ethnic representatives of the Pakhtuns (the ANP etc) did not hear the voice of the ordinary man who either joined the religious parties or at least cheered them up in their anti-American stand. As innocent people died in Afghanistan the religious parties and the Pashtuns got angrier and angrier. This anger formed the basis of the pro- religious right vote. Meanwhile the Israelis got tough with the Palestinians and the Muslim world got even angrier. This anger too came to be expressed as anti-Americanism in Pakistan. Then India arrayed its forces on Pakistan’s borders and General Musharraf had to reverse more than a decade-old policy on Kashmir. The religious right, which had lost its young men in Kashmir in support of a policy which the army had supported for so long, now felt even more enraged. Of course general Musharraf was only being pragmatic as otherwise we would have had a war on our hands but religious zealots never care for pragmatism and, at least for the last ten years or so, they have actually supported the idea of a war with India.

Further, the military started hunting for the al-Qaeda and banned some religious outfits. There was a feeling of being persecuted by the state and nothing works better to gather in sympathy votes than this feeling. However, primarily the vote for the religious parties is an anti-American vote and an anti-Musharraf vote. It is not an anti-army vote in my opinion because the religious right probably still regards the army as its ally in many matters. Whether eventually this will turn into an anti-military vote too depends on factors which cannot be taken into account in the present scenario.

Some observers feel that the victory of the religious right is something like a revolution. In my opinion, as yet, it is more symbolic than substantial. Even if the religious parties do form governments they can only be provincial governments. Now Balochistan and the N.W.F.P are not the Punjab where the bulk of the army is drawn from. Thus a central government will not be too afraid to dismiss the provincial governments of these areas. Although there are many Pashtun soldiers the discipline of the army will ensure that such a dismissal will not ordinarily precipitate a civil war. Moreover, there really is no need for dismissing a provincial government if it is acting according to the constitution. The provincial subjects are not very important ones. Provincial governments can change textbooks of children putting in more religious items in the textbooks and they can order a dress code for female employees and girls of state schools and colleges. This will turn the general population more towards the religious right but will not affect the elite very much because even in the provinces elitist schools are private or belong to such powerful institutions as the armed forces. The best state jobs too are controlled by the Centre so that the result of Islamization will be confined mostly to the lower socio-economic classes.

It should also be remembered that the religious right in Pakistan does not have the respect which the ayatollahs of Iran had. The ayatollahs brought about a revolution while the Pakistani religious parties have cashed in on the prevalent anti-Americanism in the region. Moreover, the religious parties cannot remain ideologically united for ever. They do not agree with each other’s doctrines and it is only electoral politics which has made them transcend these differences. They are not, therefore, a strong united group such as the Iranian clergy or the Taliban were. However, there are two factors which could make this odd array of uneasy partners into a cohesive force to be reckoned with. The first is an American attack on Iraq with many casualties; and the second is the dismissal of these provincial governments at the behest of America or on charges of hiding members of the al-Qaeda group. If these two things happen the religious right, which now goes in for elections, will increasingly go in for violent situation on the borders. In that case there may be a state of confrontation with the state as in Algeria. However, we are far from that scenario it seems if the vote bank of the PPPP and the pragmatic politicians in the other provinces is anything to go by..

We do, however, have to worry about the reaction of the world. The United States and India will definitely be alarmed. After all, the vote is basically an anti-American and anti-Indian vote. It is anti-Indian because the religious right views General Musharraf’s attempt to avoid a confrontation with India as a victory for India and wants to defy it. Moreover, India will be apprehensive of a possible dilution of the recent policy of general Musharraf of sealing the borders so that militants do not cross over to the other side. Although such policies are in the hands of Central authorities, of which the army is the most powerful decision-maker, India will still apprehend sympathy at lower levels with a militant policy in Kashmir. This fear needs to be addressed by the central government with both negotiations for peace and a tight control over actions which may jeopardize the precarious situation at the borders.

There is the perception that Pakistan is turning more and more to the right but this may prompt the Americans to support General Musharraf even more ardently than before. In my opinion the right will remain appealing so long as the state does not deliver goods and services and respect to the people and the external players do not stop fighting unjust wars. The real reasons for religious extremism are poverty, lack of enlightened education and a sense of injustice. People feel the system has failed and they turn to the religious right to get their rights. Moreover, external policies create hatred which makes people turn to the right. Among these reasons are the American policies in the Middle East; Afghanistan; Saudi Arabia (the stationing of troops) and Iraq. If the U.S.A actually fights in Iraq killing many people there will be more anti-Americanism and more strength for the anti-imperialist religious groups. If, however, the U.S. decides not to do this, the religious parties will weaken. If India negotiates on Kashmir and the Kashmir conflict is peacefully resolved the religious militants will lose their appeal. If not, it will capitalize on the Kashmir File perpetually displayed by the PTV. Now the policies of America and India are not in our control. Even the policies of the Centre towards the provincial governments may be beyond the influence of those who want a liberal, democratic and peaceful Pakistan. One can only hope for the best and keep one’s fingers crossed.

Dr. TARIQ RAHMAN