Andrew R. Wilder, The
Pakistani Voter: Electoral Politics and Voting Behaviour in the Punjab
(Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp.341. Price Pakistani Rs. 495/-
Although Pakistan has been under military rule for a long
time there have been many elections in the country. In the nineties, because of
the short lives of elected governments, elections have been held every few
years. Surprisingly, there are very few serious, book-length studies of
elections. On the 1970 elections both Craig Baxter and Sharif ul Mujahid
published articles in Asian Survey
(February and March 1971). Iftikhar Ahmad wrote Pakistan General Elections: 1970 and Javaid K. Bashir wrote NWFP Elections of 1970 (1973). Iftikhar
Ahmad borrows heavily from published sources while Bashir is restricted to the
N.W.F.P. The only major study is Mohammad Waseem’s The 1993 Elections in Pakistan (1994) which gave a comprehensive
analysis of the dynamics of election politics, the changes in the processes and
institutions affecting elections and a highly informative account of the
election campaign and the voting process. Wilder too focuses on the 1993
elections but limits himself to the Punjab---the most populous and powerful
province of the country.
The purpose of the book under review is to provide an
analysis of the voting behaviour of voters in the Punjab. The methodology is
empirical and the author has gone to great lengths to provide data for his
conclusions. Essentially, he sets about to answer the question: ‘who is voting
for whom and why?’
After giving a historical background of elections and a
review of the relevant literature in the first two chapters, he moves on to
analyze the electoral geography of the Punjab in chapter three. He makes the
point that the Punjab is divisible, as far as voting behaviour is concerned
between northern, central, southern and western zones. It is the central one
which is the most populated and most developed and, hence, the electorally
crucial area. The Pakistan Muslim League (PML) performed best in northern
Punjab which is where the army and a large part of the civil bureaucracy comes
from. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) on the other hand, did best in southern
Punjab where anti-Lahore feelings have been dominant since the 1970s.
Chapter four highlights the urban-rural divide. According
to the author, while the urban Punjabis voted for the PML (N), the rural
electorate voted for the PPP. Interestingly, this does not mean that the PPP’s
policies have been in favour of the poor rural voters. The reason as to why
this has happened has been provided in detail in chapter six. The author’s
theory is that Z.A. Bhutto had alienated the urban middle classes while in the
rural areas the feudal (rural) elite had joined the PPP. Moreover, a strong
anti-PPP bias had been created by Zia ul Haq’s propaganda against Bhutto, Nawaz
Sharif’s patronage politics and the political rise of the trader community
which preferred the businessman Nawaz Sharif to the PPP leaders. As urban
voters are growing in numbers, it may be the urban voting preferences which
will determine who wins elections.
In chapter five the author concentrates on the city of
Lahore, the capital of the Punjab. Here the PPP does seem to have won the votes
of the poor because of its 1970 reputation as being in favour of the poor.
However, Wilder quotes the case of Tariq Banday from NA-97 who was politically
unknown but still managed to win a national assembly seat on a PML (N) ticket.
From such incidents, the author concludes that party loyalty had become a
strong influence on voting patters in urban Punjab.
Chapter seven demolishes many popular myths about the
social determinants of voting. The most important one is that kinship group (biradari) is the most important
determinant. This chapter suggests that, while important in selecting
candidates, it may not be so important on the actual election day. People do
respond increasingly to other factors and there are differences between the
voting preferences of women and men; and younger people and older ones. This
suggests that the idea that one or two powerful males determine which side the
vote will go is not true. While powerful people may influence voting their
influence is often exaggerated.
Chapter eight tells us what are the determinants of
voting. One conclusion is that party and party leader identification is very
important. The other one is that patronage is becoming increasingly important.
This is something which other political analysts, notably Dr. Mohammad Waseem, also
pointed out. Wilder has given detailed interviews from political candidates
which suggest that the preferred candidate is one who can get things done. The
people have despaired of getting things done in the normal way, according to
rules, from the bureaucracy of the state. They want to vote for candidates who
will get them jobs, get roods constructed, get villages electrified and provide
water and other necessities. Very often they want the elected candidates to get
them out of jail even when they have broken the law. Indeed, as Wilder aptly
comments, ‘lawbreakers, rather than lawmakers, are therefore what many voters
are looking for when casting their ballots’ (p.204).
Another question which comes up again and again is as to
how powerful are the religious parties? While it is true that the religious
parties got less votes in the 1993 elections, Wilder argues that this does not
imply decrease in popular support for them as has been commonly assumed. He
says that ‘Islamic parties suffer from the same electoral problem that nearly
all third parties have with a ‘first-past-the-post’ electoral system’ (p.170).
The voters have not voted for them because they did not want to waste their
votes. Thus the Jamaat-i-Islami votes went to the PML (N). This explanation might
be correct though, of course, there is no way to verify it.
Wilder adds an addendum to the 1997 Elections in which he
again points out that patronage politics is becoming stronger. Thus, ‘the party
that it is perceived will win an election in Pakistan usually will win the
election’ (p.232). It is from the winners, no matter what principles they stand
for, that the voters hope to obtain gratification. This is a dangerous trend
because it makes the electorate abandon principles to welcome anyone who grabs
power as long as he dispenses patronage. This being so, one does not know
whether, in the absence of higher issues and ideological positions, the
devolution of power to the district levels in Pakistan, which came into effect
in August 2001, will not actually strengthen patronage politics in the country
considering that the elected district administrations’ job will only be getting
things done i.e dispensing patronage?
This, of course, is a question which future researchers
will answer. Meanwhile, in order to understand voting behaviour, especially in
the Punjab, Wilder’s data and analysis are essential reading. His hard work and
painstaking research has produced a study which all students of politics and
South Asian Studies will find valuable.